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Fire RileTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Wind Diana | 8.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.5% | -14.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cremation Ritual. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Fiery Interference, Flame Sweep.
Show all 75 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 69 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Obsequious Blow | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fireball | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |